Prelude to Chapter 16
IT IS DONE. (Rev.16: 17)
THE TRUMPETS AND THE VIALS AND THE END TIME SCENARIO
We have already observed that the seals began on a specific feast day (= the Passover AD 30-31) and that the duration of each seal is seven years, culminating in the seven year Jewish war and the fall of Massada forty two (6x7) years later.
The trumpets are also identified with a feast day – the Day of Atonement or Yom Kippur (see introduction page ) – the author proposes that these also follow the same pattern of 6x7 years, with the final seven introducing the kingdom.
The only significant Day of Atonement in recent salvic history is the 1973 Yom Kippur war. The war broke out when Egypt attacked Israel on its day of fasting and prayer. At the outbreak of war the Egyptians and Syrians broke through Israeli defences, but by 9 October the Syrian advance had been repelled.
On 10 October the American President Richard Nixon began an airlift of advanced weapons to Israel; two days later the Israeli’s engaged in a counter attack on Egypt and moved toward victory. On 24 October a cease-fire came into operation. The rumours are that Israel threatened to “go nuclear” in order to garner American support. Israel very nearly lost the war, and as a consequence the nation came to the realisation that a negotiated peace was the only way forward.
The Yom Kippur war was a watershed, and Israel has been increasingly forced to recognise that a “lasting peace” can only be achieved by compromise. Israel cannot hope to attain security and regional stability by force, the nation would not survive a defeat, whereas her enemies have.
Let us then examine the trumpets in this new light:
1973-1980 (FIRST SEVEN)
Oct 1973 Yom Kippur war breaks out when Egypt attacks Israel on its day of prayer and fasting. Initial Egyptian success followed by Israeli counter-attack, ending in UN cease-fire and inconclusive Geneva peace talks. Israel’s 1967 territorial gains unchanged. 1977: President Sadat of Egypt makes historic trip to Jerusalem. Camp David peace accord negotiated by Sadat and Menachem Begin, the Isreali prime minister, with president Carter mediating ending in the Egyptian-Israel peace treaty of 1979. Second part of the accord, on Palestinian self rule not implemented. 1978: Israeli incursion into Lebanon across the Litani river to root out Palestinian gunmen.
1980-1987 (SECOND SEVEN)
1980: Israel and Egypt exchange Ambassadors to the dismay of the Arab world. 1982: Israeli invasion of Lebanon, ending in 1985 with PLO expulsion to Tunis, an Israeli withdrawal, and the establishment of an Israeli controlled “security zone” in southern Lebanon as a buffer against attacks. Oct 1985: Israel bombs PLO headquarters in Tunis.
1987-1994 (THIRD SEVEN)
1987: Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation, the intifada, begins in the Gaza strip and swiftly spreads to the West Bank. 1988: PLO for the first time acknowledges Israel’s right to exist and renounces terrorism, although acts of terror by splinter groups continue. 1989: Yitzhak Shamir, the Isreali prime minister, formulates Israeli plan for Palestinian autonomy. America seeks to use that as basis for renewed peace process, but plan founders on problem of Palestinian representation and the Jerusalem question. Oct 1990: The killing of at least 19 Palestinians on the temple mount draws widespread international condemnation. 1991: In the aftermath of the Gulf war against Iraq, during which Israel suffers scud missile attacks but refrains from retaliation, America builds on new regional alignments and changed Soviet role to persuade Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and Israel to attend a peace conference, with a Palestinian team acceptable to Israel forming part of the Jordanian delegation. The PLO is formally excluded.
1994-2001 (FOURTH SEVEN)
Oct 1994: Peace treaty with Jordan. 1995: Yitzak Rabin assassinated. Seven years of Oslo talks come to an end when the uprising recommences as a response to Ariel Sharon’s protest walk on the temple mount. Sharon elected on security issue.
2001-2008 (FIFTH SEVEN)
ABYSS OPENED
2008-2015 (SIXTH SEVEN)
THREE PLAGUES
2015-2022 (SEVENTH SEVEN)
THE VIALS – SEVEN PLAGUES
The vials are the seven “last plagues” (15:1) which together with the “three plagues” (9: 18) constitute the ten plagues on Egypt. It is interesting to note that the first three plagues effected both the Jews and the Egyptians, but with the last seven God differentiated. (Ex.8: 22) Never the less, the last plague (death of the firstborn) did effect unfaithful Jews, who refused to put blood on the doorposts.
The sixth trumpet unleashes “three plagues” with the attack from the Euphrates – the sixth vial does the same.
“And the sixth angel poured out his vial upon the great river Euphrates; and the water thereof was dried up, that the way of the kings of the east might be prepared.”
(Rev. 16:12)
The trumpets effect one third of the area’s that are designated in this section. It is significant that Israel is effectively split into three parts – Gaza, West-Bank and Israel proper.
THE VIALS OF WRATH
The vials have a central theme that is often overlooked and is more literal than we realise. The motif that unites the chapter is water.
(v.3) Sea water – like blood
(v.4) River water, spring water – like blood
(v.8) Scorching sun – drought
(v.12) Euphrates dried up
The one resource that has caused friction in the Middle East since the time of Abraham is not oil, but water. The poisoning of water is occurring at the moment in Israel. The Times supplement of July 4 –2000 contained an article under the heading – Poisoning the Promised land: how the chosen people are killing Israel. It begins as follows:
“It took the chosen people 2,000 years to end their exile and return to the promised land. It has taken them only 52 years to turn the land of milk and honey into a country of foaming rivers, carcinogenic water and dying fish.
Surrounded by enemies, Israel has become aggressively self sufficient, greening its deserts and increasing industrialisation. But in doing so, it has poisoned its own land so badly that, if Christ were born today, his first miracle would be to survive his own baptism. In fact the holy River Jordan, where Jesus was baptised, is officially an “effluent channel” – or stinking ditch – by the time it reaches the lower Jordan Valley.
Most of the rivers in Israel are now so badly polluted that fish can live in them for minutes only, and the fishermen’s flesh is rotting. Already, admits Dalia Itzik, the country’s Environment Minister, 40 per cent of water piped to Israeli and Palestinian homes is “undrinkable”. Some scientists have already warned that carcinogens are turning up in tap water.
“The situation is catastrophic,” says Itzik. “we simply do not have enough water to meet the needs of the population.”
It is estimated that by the middle of the century global temperatures could rise 2-5 degrees Celsius. Global warming (power was given to the sun to scorch men with fire-16: 8) will result in sea level rises, changes to patterns of precipitation, increased variability in the weather and famines. On average the Northern Hemisphere is already 0.84°C warmer at night and 0.28°C during the day.
The effect of increasing population pressure coupled with a warmer climate will make water an even scarcer resource in the Middle East. The food supply is also effected; Jordan is already importing some 91% of its grain, Israel 87%, Libya 85%, Saudi Arabia 50%, and Egypt 40%.
Israel uses five times as much water as it’s neighbour Jordan, and is abstracting water from the mountain aquifer, which lies predominantly in the limestone and dolomite hills of the West Bank. This water is some 10,000 years old, from a time when rainfall was plentiful, but it is no longer being replenished. This water is a shared resource with Jordan. Israel is also extracting water from the coastal aquifer which lies some 3-5 meters above sea level, but because of over-pumping this now suffers from permanent saline intrusion and is contaminated by sewage and agricultural chemicals.1
Sharing fresh water sources is becoming as important a political issue for countries as it is an environmental one. Israel wants a guarantee from Syria that a withdrawal from the Golan Heights would not effect the supplies, either from the Sea of Galilee or tributaries of the Jordan.
After six years of below normal rainfall, the Sea of Galilee is at its lowest level since 1908 and Israel is dealing with the regions worst drought of the century. Turkey has offered to sell Israel water from the Manavgat River, but the BBC reported that such a deal could alarm neighbouring Arab countries that are long-time political foes of Israel.1
Work is underway or complete on 22 dams on the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers. Turkey says the dams will enable hundreds of thousands of hectares of land to be irrigated, and generate electricity for the underdeveloped and arid south-east of the country. Turkey controls the Tigris and Euphrates headwaters, which Iraq and Syria depend on for fresh water. Both Baghdad and Damascus have complained about the amount of water they have been getting since the completion of the first Turkish dams at the beginning of the 1990s.
They fear Turkeys ability to shut off their water supply in any possible conflict.2
The twelve page report on the internet by Hilal Ever: Emerging water conflict in the Middle East? The case of the Euphrates and the Tigris Rivers basin- makes intriguing reading.3 Here follow some quotes:
“For one month (in 1990) Turkey held back the main flow of the Euphrates River, which cut the downstream flow in Syria to about a quarter of its normal rate.”
“Nevertheless, in October 1989, late Prime Minister Turgut Ozal indicated that Turkey might impound the rivers water if Syria failed to restrain the PKK (Kurdish terrorists) from operating within its territory. Although Ozal later withdrew this threat, the underlying tensions have not been resolved, and there are currently no significant high-level talks on water sharing.”
“The ability of Turkey to shut off the flow of the Euphrates, even temporarily, was noted by political and military strategists at the beginning of the Gulf conflict. In the early days of the conflict during the crisis preceding the war, there were behind-the-scenes discussions at the United Nations about using Turkish dams on the Euphrates River to deprive Iraq of a significant fraction of its fresh water supply in response to its invasion of Kuwait. While no such action was ever taken, the threat of the “water weapon” was again a part of the diplomatic setting. Turkey has never yet used water as means of political pressure and it declined to do so during the Gulf War.”
“Syria and Iraq agree absolutely only on one thing – the threat to their future that is being posed by Turkish action to harness the resources of the Tigris and the Euphrates under the predominant control of Ankara. Despite their deep political cleavages with each other, officials from both states, along with other Arab countries, endorsed a Damascus Declaration accusing Turkey of releasing contaminated water downstream to Syria.”
“The three riparian countries, during the past two decades, have engaged in aggressive political attacks upon each other. For instance one of the Turkish officials, has responded against Syria in strong language that “we will dry them up” or “they need additional water to wash the blood of terrorism from their hands.”
“In sum, this multi-dimensional and multiphase controversy over the water allocation rights with its complex interplay of environmental, economic, cultural, political and ethnic aspects, poses a severe threat to peace and a comprehensive security in the region.”
The extraction of groundwater from the regions aquifers may also have another undesired consequence – earthquakes. The yield strength of rock drops sharply with dehydration. During a dehydration period, carbon dioxide and other gases may erupt in some cases, because limestone and other rocks dissolve; earthquake sound may release due to underground gas disturbance. Once the yield strength drops sufficiently an earthquake occurs.
“And there were voices, and thunders, and lightnings; and there was a great earthquake, such as was not since men were upon the earth, so mighty an earthquake, and so great.” (Rev.16: 18)
This earthquake is not just metaphorical but also literal:
“And his feet shall stand in that day upon the mount of Olives, which is before Jerusalem on the east, and the mount of Olives shall cleave in the midst thereof toward the east and toward the west, and there shall be a very great valley; and half of the mountain shall remove toward the north, and half of it toward the south. And ye shall flee to the valley of the mountains; for the valley of the mountains shall reach unto Azal: yea, ye shall flee, like as ye fled from before the earthquake in the days of Uzziah king of Judah: and the LORD my God shall come, and all the saints with thee.” (Zech.14:4-5)
This coincides with what is known about the geography of the region.
The two arms of the Y are the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The stem of the Y is the Great Rift Valley, which is tearing Africa apart. Eventually, as the rift deepens and widens, surrounding waters will rush in to create a new gulf, or sea, as Somalia breaks away from Africa to form the new Somali plate. Notice how the small island of Madagascar fits snugly into the African mainland. The rift was formed by an up-welling of magma heating the continental crust above, and forcing up a dome, which then cracks open to form a clear Y –shaped triple rift.
Rift Valley or Great Rift Valley, depression, extending more than 4830 km (more than 3000 miles) from Syria in South-western Asia to Mozambique in South-eastern Africa. The valley is believed to have been formed by the sinking and tearing apart of the earth's crust along a 50-million-year-old zone of weakness.
Elevations of the Rift Valley vary from 395 m (1296 ft) below sea level at the shore of the Dead Sea to about 1829 m (about 6000 ft) above sea level at cliffs in Kenya. The width of the valley ranges from a few miles to more than 160 km (more than 100 miles). In eastern Africa the valley separates into two branches: the Eastern Rift and the Western Rift. In the latter is Lake Tanganyika, one of the largest lakes of the continent. Other bodies of water within the Rift Valley include Lake Tiberias, the Jordan River, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aqaba, and the Gulf of Aden.
Jesus warned that there would be earthquakes in diverse places; this is in preparation for a seismic catastrophe of absolutely unknown magnitude. One can only imagine that this will have global consequences, with fault lines everywhere shifting and many of the world’s cities collapsing. The prophet Isaiah informs us that the Nile will run dry (Isa.19: 5) and also the prophet Ezekiel – it will be an utter waste from the tower of Syene to the border of Ethiopia (Ezek.29: 10). The tower of Syene is the current Aswan (so translated in NIV), site of the Aswan dam at lake Nasser. The ultimate fate of the Egyptians is however to be blessed together with Assyria. (Isa.19: 25)
It is clear then, that the topography of the Middle East will change dramatically, rivers will be diverted, the desert will bloom (Isa 35:6-7), Jerusalem will be elevated (both literally and metaphorically – Isa.2: 2 cp. Ps.125: 2). Water will flow from Jerusalem via the eastern Arabia (desert) to the sea. (Ezek.47: 8) No more will the Jordan flow through Adam into the Dead Sea, for it will also be elevated (compare Joshua entering the land – Josh.3: 16).
The Jordan falls 913 meters over a distance of 190 kilometres. See geological cross sections:
Moreover, the fate of the false prophet, the beast, and the beast worshippers, is to be cast alive into the lake of fire (19: 20) burning with brimstone. This lake of fire will probably be a permanent feature – one imagines that it will be similar to the magma flow on the surface of the Hawaii Island chain. This magma flows constantly to the sea creating new land. This will be a permanent reminder of the fate of the wicked – a type of kingdom holocaust memorial.
“The earth is utterly broken down, the earth is clean dissolved, the earth is moved exceedingly. The earth shall reel to and fro like a drunkard, and shall be removed like a cottage; and the transgression thereof shall be heavy upon it; and it shall fall, and not rise again. And it shall come to pass in that day, that the LORD shall punish the host of the high ones that are on high, and the kings of the earth upon the earth. And they shall be gathered together, as prisoners are gathered in the pit, and shall be shut up in the prison, and after many days shall they be visited. Then the moon shall be confounded, and the sun ashamed, when the LORD of hosts shall reign in mount Zion, and in Jerusalem, and before his ancients gloriously.” (Isa. 24:19-23)
THE WELLS OF SALVATION
We have observed that water is a major source of conflict in the Middle-east, it has been so since the time of Abraham and Isaac. It is instructive to examine these incidents once again, for they are acted parables.
GENESIS 21
JOHN 3
Abraham reproves Abimelech over a well that was violently taken away. (v.25)
Christ is that well…..whosoever drinketh of the water that I shall give him…(Jh.4:10-14)
Abimelech claims to know nothing about it.(v.26)
…art thou a teacher in Israel and understandeth not these things? (v.3)
God is with thee. (v.22)
We know that thou art a teacher come from God; for no man can do these signs except God be with him. (v.2) IMMANUEL
…..that it may be a witness to thee that I have digged this well. (v.30)
He that receiveth his witness hath set his seal to this, that God is true. (v.34)
GENESIS 26 - ISAAC
JESUS
Isaac’s goods increase greatly.
Behold…..all men come to him. (Jh.3:26)
The Philistines envy him.
The Jews envy him. (Mtt.27:18)
They block Abraham’s wells.
Ye shut up the kingdom of heaven.(Mtt.23:13)
Isaac leaves for the valley of Gerar. [=earthenware vessel]
The valley of the shadow of death. (Ps.23:4)
Isaac unblocks Abraham’s wells.
Justification by faith in Christ. He that openeth and none shall shut. (Rev.3:7)
They found there a well of springing water. (RV=living water)
The pit is no longer dry! (cp.Gen.37: 24) Living water dispensed by Christ, springing up to eternal life. (Jh.4:14)
There is also a wonderful comparison between Isaiah 49 and Isaac. Note particularly the meaning of the wells names.
ISAIAH 49
ISAAC A TYPE OF CHRIST
….and I will give thee for a covenant of the people. (v.8)
Isaac offered as a sacrifice. (Gen.22:2)
…lift up thine eyes. (v.18)
Rebekah lifted up her eyes when she saw Isaac. (Gen.24:64) And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh. (Lk.21:28)
….gird thyself with them like a bride. (v.18)
Rebekah.[= to fetter or tie]
….even by the springs of water shall he guide them. (v.25)
Isaac unblocking Abraham’s wells.
Justification by faith. (Gen.26:18)
I will contend with them that contend with thee.(v.25)
ESEK = contention: SITNAH=enmity.
The gospel preached to the Jews. (Gen.26:20,21)
….the place is too straight for me give me place that I may dwell.(v.20)
….who have begotten these?
….who have brought up these? (v.21)
REHEBOTH = to enlarge or broad places (Gen.26:22).
The covenant extended to the gentiles
GENESIS 26 THE KINGDOM TYPIFIED
Isaac went up to Beersheba [well of the oath] and receives a blessing of fruitfulness.
The Lord’s ascension?
Multiply thy seed….builds an altar….pitches his tent there.
I will place them and multiply them…and set my sanctuary in the midst of them…my tabernacle shall also be with them. (Ezk.37:27)
Wherefore are ye come unto me seeing you hate me, and have sent me away from you? (v.27)
Christ’s words to his brethren.
(compare Joseph)
……do us no hurt….(v.29)
Compare Joseph in Gen.50:15
The Lord is with thee. (v.28)
IMMANUEL
Isaac makes a feast…they depart in peace.(v.31)
Blessed are they which are bidden to the marriage supper of the Lamb. (Rev.19:9)
I will make a covenant of peace with them, it shall be an everlasting covenant with them. (Ezk.37:26)
THEY FIND WATER THE SAME DAY.(v.32) IN THAT DAY there shall be a fountain opened to the house of David and to the inhabitants of Jerusalem, for sin and uncleanness. (Zech.13:1)
Called: BEER -SHEBA
THE WELL OF THE OATH: all the promises to the patriarchs have been fulfilled – the gentiles (queen of SHEBA) also in covenant relationship.
To this we might add that in Genesis 21:27-32 Abraham made a covenant with Abimelech and gave him seven ewe lambs as a witness that he had digged the well. The seven ewe lambs – represent the seven ecclesias of Revelation – a witness that God has digged the well of the oath. (BEER –SHEBA)
“To perform the mercy promised to our fathers, and to remember his holy covenant; The oath which he sware to our father Abraham.”(Lk.1:72,73)
We have seen that water is both literally and metaphorically a bone of contention (ESEK) and a cause of hatred (SITNAH) but in the future that will no longer be the case:
“And in that day thou shalt say, O LORD, I will praise thee: though thou wast angry with me, thine anger is turned away, and thou comfortedst me. Behold, God is my salvation; I will trust, and not be afraid: for the LORD JEHOVAH is my strength and my song; he also is become my salvation. Therefore with joy shall ye draw water out of the wells of salvation. And in that day shall ye say, Praise the LORD, call upon his name, declare his doings among the people, make mention that his name is exalted. Sing unto the LORD; for he hath done excellent things: this is known in all the earth. Cry out and shout, thou inhabitant of Zion: for great is the Holy One of Israel in the midst of thee.” (Isa.12:1-6 )
REGIONAL POLITICS
Israel is a nuclear power. Seymour M. Hersh has written a book called the Samson option. (1993) In it he recounts the story of the Israeli nuclear weapons programme and it’s influence on world events. He traces Israel’s clandestine nuclear mission, from the building of the Dimona reactor site in the remote Negev desert during the late 1950s, to the establishment by the late 1970s of a sophisticated underground nuclear production facility that targeted and threatened Israel’s enemies in the Middle East as well as the Soviet Union itself.
The Samson option 1 shows Israel’s determination to prevent any future enemy from carrying out another holocaust. Just as Samson brought down the temple and killed himself along with his enemies, so Israel would destroy those who would bring it down. The message is stark: the next Middle East war may well be nuclear.
The nuclear deterrent has been code named the “Temple” weapons (pg.226) the whole house of Israel being the “Temple.” Truly we can lament with the prophet Jeremiah; “My people hath changed their glory for that which doth not profit.” (Jer.2: 11)
They have changed the radiating shekinah for radiation and the Most Holy for a nuclear reactor.
According to Hersh, Israel has also developed hundreds of low-yield neutron warheads capable of destroying large numbers of enemy troops with minimal property damages.
“The size and sophistication of Israel’s arsenal allow men such as Ariel Sharon to dream of redrawing the map of the Middle East aided by the implicit threat of nuclear force.” (pg.319)
This was written before the election of Sharon. It must be remembered that Sharon instigated the Lebanon war in order to create a friendly Christian buffer state between Syria, and to destabilise Jordan, thus creating a Palestinian homeland and ridding himself of the internal Palestinian problem once and for all. How will he respond to continued terrorism? With war or peace? The past suggests war. Is Ariel Sharon the lion-mouth? (Rev.13: 2) Perhaps.
According to the Sunday Times News Review (Feb.25-2001) Iraq is also a nuclear power. Sadam Hussein has supposedly already tested a nuclear weapon in a cave under lake Rezazza. Intelligence suggests that Iraq now possesses three Hiroshima type bombs, three implosion weapons and three thermonuclear weapons. Israel delayed the Iraqi nuclear programme when it bombed the nuclear reactor at Osirak, which lies twelve miles south-east of Baghdad in 1981.
Sadam Hussein has outlasted all his foes. Even if he does not possess nuclear weapons, he most certainly has chemical weapons at his disposal. He is attempting to obtain a more reliable means of delivery than the scud missiles. The Mail on Sunday Review (Oct 1 2000) had the following to say in an article entitled, Sadam the Survivor:1
“The ancient city of Babylon has always been a monument to the supreme egotism of man. It was here that the great tower of Babel was built to reach up to heaven, only to be struck down by God for arrogance. It was here that great King Nebuchadnezzar reigned supreme over one of the greatest empires of the Middle East. Little seems to have changed in these past few millennia. When I travelled here to attend the 12th Babylon Festival, I discovered a city which has been rebuilt as a temple to the glory of the present strongman who runs this ancient territory, the Iraqi President Saddam Hussein who, despite being one of the world’s most demonised leaders, is also one of it’s greatest political survivors.”
Is he the head whose mortal wound (Rev.13: 3) has healed? Perhaps. More likely he is only part of the jig-saw, but a large part. He certainly sees himself as the liberator of the Palestinian people;
“Long live Iraq the Great – immortal for it’s values and the significance of it’s deeds! Long live our glorious Arab nation. Contempt and shame for the enemies! Long live Palestine-free, proud and Arab from the sea to the river! Long live every loyal freedom fighter everywhere! God is great! God is great! And let the debased be dispised!”2
REGIONAL ALLIANCES
The following quotation from an article by Amos Perlmutter (a US-based political scientist and Middle East analyst) has some valid points to make:
Middle East security: What next? 3
(September 24-2000) – An independent Palestinian state will certainly be declared by 2001, but will not bring an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict. The argument of some strategists that peace with Palestinians will mean the end of the conflict is unrealistic.
Certainly, Palestinian peace is imperative for stability in the area, but it is insufficient. Israelis must think of what will be required of Israeli security once the Palestinian issue has been settled. It is quite clear that our north-eastern frontier is not secure. There are two revisionist powers in the area – Iran and especially Saddam’s Iraq – that pose an existential and security danger to Israel. Peace with Syria is still not in sight, and no strategic thinker should overlook a tacit coalition between Iraq and Syria in challenging Israel’s north-eastern frontier. Middle East security cannot be achieved without Israel, nor can it be fulfilled without a partnership with the Arabs.
Israel is faced with two choices. The short-term choice is peace with Syria and a closer Israeli-Jordanian strategic relationship that may eventually become the second long-term choice, ie, a north-eastern states regional security arrangement. That would mean a complex arrangement between Israel, Jordan, Syria, and a post-Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq. I will not spell out the exact balance of the relationship. It is easier to discover contradictions than enlighten mutual benefits.
The regional security of the north-east would give the Arab states of Syria, Iraq, and Jordan a greater leverage in their relationship with Egypt. The rivalry between Iraq and Egypt goes back to Nasser of Egypt and Nuri a-Sud of Iraq. The struggle between the Fertile Crescent and the Nile Valley goes back to time immemorial and have not changed geographically and strategically in modern times. The north-eastern regional security arrangement would not be designed to challenge Egypt, but to ensure that the current Egyptian-Palestinian entente cordiale will not challenge the territorial integrity of Jordan- still a Palestinian goal.
Obviously, the Middle East is not Western Europe, where the historical balance of power prevailed. The absence of an Israeli role in helping to form the security arrangement could create the very conditions for an unnecessary Iraqi-Syrian coalition war against Israel, which could seriously threaten Jordanian security.
Rather than going into specifics, I lay down a strategic condition for Israeli security after a Palestinian state has been declared. Once it is established there should be no raison d’ê tre for an Arab coalition against Israel, unless there is an unforeseen expansionist regime in Iraq. In fact, Iraq today poses the greatest danger to Middle East security. As long as Saddam is in power, the regional arrangement will not be able to fall in place. Peace between Israel and Syria is imperative for this regional alliance to have a chance.
Israeli diplomacy and strategy must be very cautious in presenting the idea of north-eastern regional security lest it be interpreted on the part of Syria, Jordan, or Iraq as an effort on the part of Israel to strategically dominate the region.
There is a power in the Middle East that can help usher in this regional security and remove the burden of concern in Iraq, Syria, or Jordan that Israel is trying to establish its hegemony through the regional security arrangement. This power is Turkey. Turkey has good relations with Iraq, has improved its relationship with Syria now that there is no Assad to forment Kurdish revolutionaries, and certainly its strategic relationship with Israel and strong economic ties with Jordan can dissipate a fear of Israel on the part of north-eastern Arab countries. I would certainly not dismiss the role of Saudi Arabia, if it so desires, to become a partner as well.
It is extremely interesting to note that Turkey is increasingly seen as a friend of Israel. As we have noted it is Turkey who has the power to “turn off the tap” and “dry up the Euphrates.” This would certainly provoke the “kings of the East” to take action.
Arab-Israeli war
There is no logic in going to war before every possible concession has been wrung out of the enemy by peaceful means – and for all their public opposition to the peace process, those in the Arab-Iranian war party have always understood that negotiating a return of the Gaza Strip, West Bank, and possibly the Golan Heights made much more sense than fighting for them.
The neutralisation of Israel’s nuclear deterrent
The main deterrent to another Arab-Israeli war is the Israeli nuclear programme. If however, Iraq has already developed a nuclear capability this could neutralise the threat. Syria also has far more conventional Scud-C missiles (armed with advanced chemical warheads) than previously thought. It also has an unusually high proportion of launchers to missiles (2:1 instead of the usual 10:1). This will enable Syria to launch a barrage of missiles at Israel in one go. With such a capability, Syria might legitimately think that Israel would dare not use its nuclear arsenal. To this scenario we have to add Iran’s development of ballistic missiles with Russian (and Chinese?) support.
Neutralising American involvement
The Bush administration is already proving more reluctant in becoming involved in Middle East politics. This is in marked contrast to the Clinton era. It may well be that this reflects a more permanent change in American political attitudes – if Europe increases its military independence, this may push America further towards isolationism. The question America is increasingly asking itself about foreign policy is; “What’s in it for us?” This attitude would be reinforced by the threatened use of the “oil weapon” by the Arab states. American involvement could well be limited by the use of economic blackmail.
OPENING THE ABYSS
I have already suggested that the 5th trumpet starts in 2001 with the opening of the Abyss. The Times supplement Nov.24-2000 contained an article entitled: Middle East meltdown. The end game. The article commences as follows:
(September 11 has occurred before this was published confirming the start of the 5th trumpet)
Israeli analysts predict that the Middle East is one third of the way towards Armageddon.
Deep in the bowels of Ha Kiryah, the Israeli Ministry of Defence headquarters whose bristling antennae dominate Tel Aviv’s skyline, a small and elite team of computer wizards, military analysts and political experts are playing a war game.
It could be called Doom or Armageddon. But the simulations are no fun. They are playing out the worse case scenarios of a Middle East meltdown in which everyone, and they mean everyone, is a loser. The conclusions of the geeks who live in a virtual world are based on reality. About a third of the End Game scenario has already been played out. The analysts are not alone in fearing that what began as a semi-popular, semi-spontaneous uprising of Palestinians against continued Israeli occupation has already mutated into a mini-war of growing intensity which now threatens to spin out of control and suck the whole of the Middle East into its vortex. United Nations diplomats, William Cohen, the United States defence secretary, moderate and immoderate Arab leaders, members of the Israeli cabinet and Yasser Arafat’s senior advisors can agree on little. But they are unanimous in the fear that the region is teetering on the brink of an unthinkably horrible abyss.
The children of this world are indeed wiser than the children of light. Why are Christadelphians fixated on Europe?
POST SCRIPT:
DECEMBER 2001 – I am still busy editing this publication and the situation has changed so rapidly since September 11- that it deserves a mention. I was certain that 2001 would see the start of the 5th trumpet, and that something was required to shake America out of isolationism. We have surely seen the smoke rising from the abyss and darkening the sun (the twin towers burned for 100 days) – next we will see a beast emerge from the abyss. It seems that America is even more pro-Israel and is determined to remove terrorism from the Middle East; this will prepare the way for the formation of the beast-empire.
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NOTES
1 Wells of conflict on the West Bank. Fred Pearce. New Scientist 1 June 1991
NOTES
1 Israeli-Syrian peace talks highlight Middle East water shortages 27 Dec 1999:
http://www.disasterrelief.org/Disasters/991216 watershortage/
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2 BBC online network: Middle East Turkish dam gets UK support. http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east/newsid_288000/288183.stm
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3 http://gurukul.ucc.american.edu/maksoud/water 98/present 8.htm
NOTES
1 This is very appropriate for Samson is a type of the nation, led astray by foreign women. Compare Deuteronomy chapter 28 with aspects of Samson’s life.
NOTES
1 The Guardian supplement G2 (Jan.3-2001) contains a similar article under the heading: REMEMBER ME? Brian Whittaker on the dictator who won’t go away. See also: Evading UN resolutions and failure to disarm. http://usinfo.state.gov/regional/nea/iraq/iraq 99b.htm
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2 Speech on Iraqi satellite TV Jan. 17-2000 marking the 9th anniversary of the Gulf war.
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3 http://www.jpost.com/Editions/2000/09/24/Opinion/Opinion.12737.html
